The consumer confidence index (CCI) fell sharply by 23points to -6.4points in Q1’18, driven by consumers’ perception of deteriorating economic conditions and declining disposable income. Ironically, the CCI is declining at a time when the PMI, a measure of investor optimism, is increasing (59.4points). The explanation for this anomaly is that CCI is a lagging indicator whilst the latter is a leading indicator. In a few weeks when the Q1’18 GDP numbers are released, these contradictions should be laid to rest.
The attached slides contain a snapshot of recent commodity market movements and burning economic issues.
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