As widely anticipated, Nigeria’s headline inflation slipped by 0.09% to 11.14% in July. This is the 18th consecutive monthly decline and a 30-month low, driven mainly by a drop in food inflation. Whilst the 18-month trend continued, the rate of decline has slowed to a trifle, indicating a likely increase in August.
Monthly-on-month inflation (a more current measure of price movement) declined to 1.13% (14.39% annualized). This figure is more reflective of harvest seasonality effect.
The GDP numbers for Q2’18 are scheduled to be released on August 27. If the GDP numbers come in lower than expected and unemployment data shows a spike, the CBN may be forced to consider an accommodative stance as against a promised tightening.
In the attached bulletin, the FDC Think-Tank analyses the inflation numbers for July.
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