Nigeria’s headline inflation defied analysts’ projections in April, increasing to 11.37% from 11.25% in March. This marks the first increase in 2019. The uptick in the annual price level was primarily due to a rise in the food index to 13.7%. This is a reflection of the planting season effect and heightened insecurity in food producing states. Notably, all the sub-indices with the exception of core inflation (inflation less seasonalities) moved in the same upward direction.
The month-on-month inflation, a better reflection of current prices and inflation expectations, was up 15bps to 0.94% in April. This suggests that the rise in the headline inflation could be the beginning of another trend. Thus, we expect that the MPC could be hawkish in its policy direction.
In the attached bulletin, the FDC Think-Tank analyses the inflation data for April and its impact on economic policy environment.
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