Nigeria’s headline inflation is projected to increase marginally in August to 11.15%. This is likely to bring to an end the 18-month consistent decline in the index. This inflection is not surprising as the rate of moderation in the price level had been noticeable over time.
Also noteworthy is the expected dip in the month-on-month inflation to 0.98% (12.36% annualized), driven by higher agric output. The third quarter of the year is the peak of the harvest.
A change in the direction of inflation is likely to restrain the MPC from reducing interest rates at their next meeting on September 24/25.
In the attached bulletin, the FDC Think-Tank is projecting the inflation numbers for August.
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