This edition of the LBS, 2019 year ahead edition, looks at the global imperatives, turbulence in world trade, the revisionism to protectionist policies, the dangers of competitive devaluation and the spectre of another recession.
In Africa, we look at the challenges of regional integration and vulnerability of African commodity producers to slower growth, price volatility and higher debt.
The Nigerian economy may succumb to pressures of an oil price (down by 40%) to $53pb range and a cut in production to 1.67mbpd. The lower oil revenue and a growing deficit will erode the fiscal consolidation policies of the government.
With Banking industry fragility and a naira under speculative pressure, 2019 will be a year of technological and investment opportunities but serious political and policy challenges.
The amicable settlement between Nigeria and MTN after an avoidable saga is a good way to end an eruptive year. A listing of MTN is the much needed booster shot the Nigerian stock market badly needs.
Nigeria’s 2019 election is being greeted with the classical reaction of an economic indifference curve. This curve is a combination of choices between commodity A and B which gives a consumer the same level of satisfaction or dissatisfaction.
Most economics textbooks talk about a choice between commodity A and B, which by strange coincidence is the first letter of the names of the two leading candidates. Talking to a cross section of young people between the ages of 20 and 30, most respondents were unenthusiastic, indifferent and apathetic. Some considered it an Hobson’s choice. Based on this, we are anticipating voter apathy and a low turnout in the February election.
In the attached slides presented by Bismarck Rewane at the LBS December dinner, he takes a deep dive into the imponderables, flashpoints and unknowns of 2019 and tries to unravel the uncertainties ahead.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year in advance.