Against analyst expectations, January 2017 turned out to be a wet blanket. The purchasing managers’ index (the proxy for manufacturing confidence) contracted from 52 to 48.2. Inflation inched up instead of declining and the naira touched N500/$.

Many analysts are beginning to doubt the prospects of a 2017 recovery and pundits are becoming pessimistic again. The view of the FDC Think Tank is that the slow economic recovery trajectory is still intact, in spite of the January bumps. The stock market will trade flat to negative but the international borrowing programme of the FGN and a mildly aggressive expenditure on rail infrastructure will help boost growth again.

At this month’s LBS breakfast session, Bismarck Rewane evaluates the probability of an early and sharp recovery as against the possibility of a slow and painful upturn in economic activity in 2017. The impact of these growth dynamics on your business is also highlighted in this lucid presentation.