Dear Subscriber,

“If you do not know where you are going, any road will get you there” – Lewis Carroll

April was a tough month for everyone, more so in Nigeria. That was the first time that a lockdown was declared in many years.

Whilst some countries are poised to experience a ‘U’ recovery in a post-pandemic world, Nigeria is likely to experience a ‘W’ infection/fatality curve and a ‘U’ shaped economic recovery. In a manner similar to the virus, economies with pre-existing conditions are more vulnerable to the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic. Nigeria has fundamental macroeconomic challenges that predate Covid and these are likely to exacerbate the economic impact of the virus. Even with oil prices above the revised budget benchmark of $25pb, the country’s buffers are low and vulnerabilities are high.

Nigeria’s Q1 GDP report scheduled to be released on May 25 would be a sordid preview of a limping economy. By Q2 and Q3, Nigeria’s GDP could contract by

-3.5% to -8% depending on the severity of the pandemic. Nigeria’s journey from a dismal performance to full recovery will be painful and depend on its ability to maintain economic discipline in the adoption and management of a flexible exchange rate that is competitive relative to those of its trading partners.

In this virtual edition of the LBS Breakfast Session, Bismarck Rewane and the FDC Think Tank attempt to navigate through the murky times and offer you a glimpse of the global, regional and domestic economy post Covid-19.

Enjoy your read!