Dear Subscriber,

Nigerian economy on a mend or taking a bend

Nigerians are as apprehensive as ever about the economic direction of the country. Whilst published data suggests a rapid recovery, anecdotal evidence reveals the contrary.

Real GDP for Q3 is sharply higher at 3.46%, whilst inflation rose mildly to 33.8%. There are also signs of higher corporate mortality and major divestments. The stock market is wobbly whilst international remittances are rolling in.

It’s the exchange rate that matters most

The key indicator everyone is looking out for is the value of the Naira in the forex market. In seven days, the Naira has rallied by over 8% to N1,600/$ before plunging again to N1,705/$. This misalignment of the currency from its real equilibrium exchange rate is not going to be corrected in one week. Nigerians have to be more circumspect about macroeconomic indicators. But as a young market operator told us, “I am tired of being patient, because for me the patient dog eats no bone.”

In the attached slides and video clip, Bismarck Rewane and the FDC think tank do justice to the economic review of the last eighteen months whilst attempting to peep into 2025.

Keep your fingers crossed.

Enjoy your read!