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Approximately 40% of Nigeria’s cocoa output may be at risk from the spread of the fungal black pod disease which is thriving under excessive rainfall. Unfortunately, this coincides with a rebound in cocoa prices which have surged 17.57% in the last five weeks to $2,455/metric tonne. Nigeria earned approximately $700mn from exporting 280,000 metric tonnes of cocoa in 2019.

Cameroon, which used to be a marginal player, has come into contention in recent years and is poised to overtake Nigeria as the 4th largest cocoa producer in the world with a projected output of 285,000 metric tonnes in 2019/20. While Nigeria’s cocoa output is concentrated in the country’s south-west region, Cameroon’s output confirms the view that the entire southern part of Nigeria (especially the south-east which shares a common border with Cameroon) should have cocoa yields as high as the south-west. This could potentially double Nigeria’s cocoa output.

The slides contain a snapshot of developments in the global and domestic commodities market and the likely impact on inflation and the value of the naira.

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