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FDC ECONOMIC BULLETIN – DECEMBER 19, 2019 (Re: Inflation – What goes up will go up again!!!)

Dear subscriber,

Inflation spikes again as border closure takes its toll

Headline inflation increased for the 3rd consecutive month in November 2019 to 11.85%. Cumulatively, the CPI has jumped by 0.83% since August. Unlike in October, core inflation (Inflation less seasonal factors) increased by 0.11% to 8.99%. This means that the inflation trend is not driven by seasonality alone. A decomposition of the inflation basket shows that border closure, speculative trading and money supply saturation are combining to give inflation some momentum. The good news is that the month-on-month inflation (a more reflective measure of current prices) declined by 0.08% to 1.25%.

Inflationary pressures to heighten in December

The projections for December inflation points toward another jump in headline inflation. This time we are tentatively estimating inflation of 12.1%. This is in line with analysts consensus and the IMF’s projection of 12.2%.

In the publication, the FDC Think-Tank analyzes the inflation data for November and likely impact on policy and markets.

Do enjoy your read…

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