Inflation spikes again as border closure takes its toll
Headline inflation increased for the 3rd consecutive month in November 2019 to 11.85%. Cumulatively, the CPI has jumped by 0.83% since August. Unlike in October, core inflation (Inflation less seasonal factors) increased by 0.11% to 8.99%. This means that the inflation trend is not driven by seasonality alone. A decomposition of the inflation basket shows that border closure, speculative trading and money supply saturation are combining to give inflation some momentum. The good news is that the month-on-month inflation (a more reflective measure of current prices) declined by 0.08% to 1.25%.
Inflationary pressures to heighten in December
The projections for December inflation points toward another jump in headline inflation. This time we are tentatively estimating inflation of 12.1%. This is in line with analysts consensus and the IMF’s projection of 12.2%.
In the publication, the FDC Think-Tank analyzes the inflation data for November and likely impact on policy and markets.
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