NBS released its August inflation result. The data released shows a marginal fall in headline inflation and the 7th consecutive monthly slide.
This report offers the last major snapshot of inflation before the MPC meeting coming up on the 25/26 of September. It will likely influence their decision on whether to move from a tightening cycle towards a more accommodative stance, either symbolically or fundamentally.
The outlook for inflation in the months ahead is mixed. In September and October, we are expecting a continuation of the slide towards 15.95%. But there is a distinct risk of a reversal of this trend in December as a result of a possible surge in aggregate demand from seasonalities and festivities.
In the attached bulletin, the FDC Think-Tank analyses inflationary movements in August.
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