Donald Rumsfeld said that “when the unknown unknowns are greater than the known unknowns” then all bets are off. This is what investors and analysts are trying to get their heads around in Nigeria today.
The Chinese say “may we live in interesting times”. For Nigerians, these are not only interesting but also challenging and daunting times.
Making things more complicated is the confluence of political imponderables, drifting leadership and conflicted policy makers. The shocking but inevitable marching orders by the president to political appointees to vamus and quit their plum jobs to essentially come out of their political closets, is another unknown in the quadratic political calculus.
For the economy as a whole, the investor sentiment has become more bearish as they deal with the bewilderment of the unravelling of an incoherent sequence of policies and the consequences of a sweeping replacement of outgoing pseudo regulators (policymakers).
The Nigerian Stock market has been oblivious to global and domestic shocks and is actually sizzling with a Ramadan/Easter rally.
In the forex market, the Naira is close to the psychological resistance of N600/$ and diaspora flows are falling below expectations. The markets are likely to be jittery if the policy making vacuum is filled with incompetent and compromised technocrats. One thing is clear, Headline inflation in Nigeria is projected to rise above 16.2% this month and could force the MPC to tighten its stance in May thereby forcing asset values down.
In this edition of the LBS Breakfast Session, Bismarck Rewane and the FDC Think Tank analyze the current developments in the market, the economy and its impact on your business and strategy.
Enjoy your read…