{"id":121440,"date":"2023-12-05T13:36:34","date_gmt":"2023-12-05T13:36:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fdcng.com\/?p=121440"},"modified":"2023-12-05T13:36:34","modified_gmt":"2023-12-05T13:36:34","slug":"fdc-economic-splash-december-05-2023-re-headline-inflation-to-inch-up-to-27-5-seasonality-is-the-main-culprit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fdcng.com\/fdc-economic-splash-december-05-2023-re-headline-inflation-to-inch-up-to-27-5-seasonality-is-the-main-culprit\/","title":{"rendered":"FDC ECONOMIC SPLASH \u2013 DECEMBER 05, 2023 (Re: Headline inflation to inch up to 27.5% &#8211; Seasonality is the main culprit)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[vc_row][vc_column]<div class=\"gem-button-container gem-button-position-inline\"><a class=\"gem-button gem-button-size-small gem-button-style-flat gem-button-text-weight-normal\" style=\"border-radius: 3px;background-color: #ddbd89;color: #ffffff;\" onmouseleave=\"this.style.backgroundColor='#ddbd89';this.style.color='#ffffff';\" onmouseenter=\"this.style.backgroundColor='#ddccaa';this.style.color='#000000';\" href=\"https:\/\/fdcng.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Pre-Inflation-Bulletin-December-05-2023.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">DOWNLOAD PDF<\/a><\/div> [\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Dear Subscriber,<\/p>\n<p>The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release its November inflation report next week (Friday, December 15). Our forecast is that headline inflation will increase marginally by 0.17% to 27.50% (an 18-year peak). The food and core sub-indices are expected to witness marginal increases, rising to 31.8% and 22.72% respectively.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Month-on-month Inflation is declining<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Whilst headline inflation has maintained its upward trend, the cheery news is that the slope of the curve is flattening out. This coupled with the projected 0.18% decline in month-on-month inflation to 1.54% (20.23% annualized) suggests that inflation may be heading towards a point of inflection and could begin to taper as early as Q1\u201924. This will make the 2024 budget inflation goal of 21.4% a more realistic target. Notwithstanding though, Nigerian inflation is still 19% above the upper band of the CBN target (6-9%) and is much higher than the SSA average of 16.8%. The MPC will meet in January 2024. The consensus opinion is that the CBN will hike its monetary policy rate by at least 100 basis points to 19.75%p.a. The Apex bank had earlier reiterated its determination to focus primarily on the goal of price stability and not be distracted by unorthodox activities.<\/p>\n<p>The FDC Think Tank shares its estimates for November inflation and the likely policy reaction in the download and link below.<\/p>\n<p>Enjoy your read![\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[vc_row][vc_column][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Dear Subscriber, The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release its November inflation report next week (Friday, December 15). Our&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,35],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fdcng.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121440"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fdcng.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fdcng.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fdcng.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fdcng.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=121440"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/fdcng.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121440\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":121441,"href":"https:\/\/fdcng.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121440\/revisions\/121441"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fdcng.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=121440"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fdcng.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=121440"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fdcng.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=121440"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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