Inflation slowed by 0.94% in February to 17.78% from 18.72% in January, leading many to believe that February is the point of inflection for the inflationary trend. This development is coinciding with a confluence of good news. The naira is up 20%, reserves are at a 12-month high of $30bn and GDP is slowly expanding. Core inflation rate also slowed for the 3rd consecutive month to 16% from 17.9% the previous month.

The Monetary Policy Committee is to meet next week and although the temptation to reduce rates is high, the consensus is that the MPC will maintain status quo on rates with a slight adjustment in the CRR at best.

In the attached bulletin, the FDC Think-Tank analyses price movements in February.