Dear Subscriber,

We anticipate a marginal decline of 0.01% in the headline inflation to 11.24% in April. This will mark the fourth consecutive monthly decline in headline inflation in 2019. Analysts are of mixed views as to the inflation trend. Notwithstanding the direction of the inflation trend in April, inflationary pressures are beginning to mount due to minimum wage implementation and seasonal factors.

The month-on-month inflation is expected to increase to 0.82% (10.48% annualized) from 0.79% (9.16% annualized) in the previous month. The rising inflation rate would be one of the major considerations at the next MPC meeting on May 20/21.

In the attached bulletin, the FDC Think Tank shares its estimates for April inflation and likely market reactions.

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