Dear Subscriber,

In two weeks, the NBS will release the November inflation report and we forecast another increase in annual inflation. Our econometric model and market survey in Lagos show that headline inflation will rise again to 21.35% in November from 21.09% in October. This will be the tenth consecutive monthly increase and the highest inflation level in 17 years. The major culprits remain the exchange rate pass-through effect on commodity prices, supply chain disruptions, and election spending. The core sub-index (inflation less seasonalities) is expected to move in tandem with headline inflation to 17.92%, while food inflation could slow by 0.30% to 23.42% on harvest effect.

Inflation is a global problem

The rise in inflation in Nigeria is consistent with global trends. Advanced economies and emerging markets are grappling with stubbornly high inflation that is worsening the costs of living. The IMF projects that inflation will spike to 9% in 2022 due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. In addition, the recent EIU survey on the Worldwide Cost of Living (WCOL) showed that prices surged by an average of 8.1% in the world’s biggest cities like Singapore and New York over the past year. This is the fastest rate in the last two decades.

Inflationary pressures will spill over into 2023, albeit at a slower pace. The IMF forecasts that global inflation will slide by 2.9% to 6.5% in 2023.  Meanwhile, monetary policy authorities are likely to remain hawkish until inflationary pressures subside drastically.

In this latest edition of the pre-inflation bulletin, Bismarck Rewane and the FDC Think Tank break down the inflation forecast and its implications on the economy.

Do enjoy your read…