Dear Subscriber,

Nigeria’s headline inflation will sustain its upward trajectory when the NBS releases its CPI report next week (June 15). We are forecasting a spike of 22.7% in the month of May from 22.22% in April.

The rate of increase in the level of inflation has become more rapid than in earlier months. The major drivers of inflation during the month of May remain money supply growth (up 18.87% y-o-y), supply shortages (planting season effect) and exchange rate pass-through (depreciated 3.3% to N765/$).

The inflation data this time is not reflective of the effect of the 150% increase in the price of petrol resulting from the reduction in the PMS subsidy. The full impact of the petrol price adjustment will be felt in the inflation numbers for June, which initial estimate is put at 25.2%. However, price of diesel, which is the major fuel used by trucks for logistics declined by 12.70% to ₦660/ltr in June from its peak of ₦756/ltr in May. This is expected to mildly ease inflation pressures.

Another interest rate hike may be imminent

Policy makers are in a bind as to how to manage the liquidity-induced inflation and the cost push effect of petrol pricing. Initial thoughts are that the MPC will tighten some more and allow the effective rates of interest, which are presently very low to rise in the direction of inflation.

In the download, the FDC Think Tank projects inflation numbers for the month of May and their impact on businesses and the economy.

Do enjoy your read…