The NBS will release the inflation data for August on Sept 15. We are projecting a marginal increase of 0.13% in headline inflation to 12.95%. It will be a 30-month peak and will confirm the fear of markets that rising price inflation is almost becoming endemic in Nigeria.
One noticeable feature of our projection based on a market survey is that the rate of increase of 0.13% is the slowest in the last two months. This means that price change is now increasing at a slower pace than earlier and could now be reaching a point of inflection. However, because of the petrol price jolt in September, we are also likely to witness an exceptional spike resulting from higher transport costs and exchange rate pass through to the market.
There is also a strong correlation between the re-opening of the economy, increase in economic activity and the gradual increase in price inflation. Therefore, headline inflation is likely to stay elevated through Q3 & Q4 before subsiding.
In the download and link below, the FDC Think Tank shares its estimates for August inflation and likely policy reactions.
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