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Nigeria’s Oil Output Hits 1.51mbpd in July
Nigeria’s oil production averaged 1.51 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, remaining above its OPEC quota for the second consecutive month. This represents a 15.27% increase from the same period in 2024, when production stood at 1.31 mbpd, constrained by sabotage, force majeure, and vandalism. The NNPC appears determined to sustain this level of output, which will be crucial for Nigeria’s export earnings and currency stability.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Brent crude prices are forecast to average below $60 per barrel in Q4 2025—the lowest quarterly average since 2020. Goldman Sachs also projects Brent at $62 per barrel by year-end. Sustained lower oil prices could threaten Nigeria’s export earnings and its external balance, which has recently remained positive.
Markets, however, will be watching for the outcome of today’s meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, aimed at discussing a potential ceasefire in Ukraine. While Trump is likely to favour lower oil prices to ease inflationary pressures in the U.S., higher prices would benefit Putin and bolster Russia’s revenues
Falling Fertility Rates in Africa Could Accelerate Development – Culled from the Financial Times
“Africa, once seen as the world’s youth capital, is now experiencing a steady drop in fertility rates. Kenya, for instance, has reduced births per woman from nearly 8 in the 1970s to 3.2 today, driven by urbanisation, education, and women’s economic empowerment. While the continent’s population will still rise from 1.5bn today to 2.5bn by 2050, the pace of decline will shape economic outcomes. Economists note that fertility below 3 enables higher savings, cheaper finance, and faster development, as families can invest more in each child. Some countries, like Kenya, may reach this milestone within a decade, potentially bringing forward economic take-off by several years.
However, Africa’s transition is slower than that of Asia, raising concerns about missing out on an “Asian-style” demographic dividend. Limited job creation and underinvestment in human capital, especially for women and youth, could undermine economic gains. While high fertility remains culturally defended in some regions, evidence shows it is closely linked to persistent poverty — making the current decline a crucial turning point for Africa’s economic future.”
In this latest edition of Whispers, the FDC Think Tank takes a deep dive into recent economic developments and their impact on your business and corporate strategy.
