Dear subscriber,
Rebasing to boost GDP, but little trickles down
Nigeria will likely regain its position as Africa’s largest economy as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases rebased GDP figures tomorrow. Using 2024 as the new base year, the rebasing exercise, the first since 2014, incorporates updated methodologies aligned with international standards set by several global institutions. It also expands coverage to previously underrepresented sectors—most notably the informal economy, which accounts for approximately 58% of national output.
The new figures will reflect a broader and more dynamic economic structure, which may increase the nominal size of GDP and improve key fiscal indicators, such as the debt-to-GDP ratio. However, while the rebasing enhances statistical accuracy and investor perception, it does not alter the underlying structural challenges of the economy. This includes low productivity, weak revenue mobilization, and high unemployment. The real value lies in how policymakers translate these revised metrics into actionable reforms that foster inclusive growth, competitiveness, and long-term economic resilience.
The new economy (creative economy) is both a catalyst and a transformative agent
Nigeria’s creative economy is emerging as a powerful engine for growth, driven by sectors such as Nollywood, Afrobeats, fashion, and digital content creation. Contributing 2.3% to GDP and employing over 4.2 million people, the industry is expected to generate $14.8 billion in revenue and create 2.7 million new jobs by 2025. However, its global impact remains limited; creative goods exports stood at just $200 thousand in 2023, compared to China’s $229.6 billion and India’s $20.6 billion.
China and India offer critical lessons: both countries have embedded the creative economy into their national development strategies, backed by strong policies, robust infrastructure, digital innovation, and diaspora engagement. Nigeria must do the same by investing in creative export hubs, reforming intellectual property laws, integrating creative skills into its education system, and developing market intelligence systems.
Nigeria is now the Gen Z capital of the world
With over 60% of the population under 25 and digital connectivity on the rise, Nigeria is uniquely positioned to unlock global value from its creative industries. To do so, it must transition from consuming and producing content locally to exporting culture, creativity, and innovation on a larger scale.
In this latest edition of Whispers, the FDC Think Tank takes a deep dive into recent economic developments bringing you timely insights into the forces driving the economy.
