Dear Subscriber,

New Policies for the Pain of Old Policies

The Nigerian consumer is facing significant pressures ranging from fuel shortages to high commodity prices, and declining living standards. The elevated cost of living has pushed many to adopt unhealthy coping mechanisms, increasing vulnerability to diseases & epidemics such as the recent Cholera outbreak. To improve welfare, the government has embarked on a minimum wage review, introduced a N2 trillion fiscal stabilization package, and implemented a 150-day duty-free import window for certain food commodities.

However, there are concerns about the use of asymmetric information by individuals with prior knowledge of these initiatives to take early positions. This could hinder the anticipated relief in living costs for the public while enabling these “speculators” to amass significant rent (profits). Additionally, these measures are short-term solutions intended to provide urgent economic relief. For a lasting impact, a clear and detailed plan to address structural challenges such as insecurity and poor infrastructure is essential.

Short-term Cheers, Long-term Fears

After strengthening in June to N1475/$, the naira has begun to slide again. In July, it has depreciated by 3.46% to trade at N1560/$ on July 11. The fiscal authorities’ efforts at fiscal stability and the central bank’s goal of exchange rate stabilization seem to be mutually exclusive but temporary contradictions. This calls for better coordination between monetary and fiscal policies. A sustained weakening of the naira could lead to higher inflation, worsening the cost-of-living crisis and posing a risk of social unrest.

In this latest edition of Whispers, the FDC Think Tank delves into recent economic developments and their implications for businesses and corporate strategy. While the cost-of-living crisis is currently challenging, it shows signs of potential improvement, provided that both immediate and long-term strategies are effectively implemented.

Enjoy your read!