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Nigeria leaps to medium HDI in 2025
For the first time since 1990, Nigeria has moved into the medium human development indicator (HDI) category, with its score rising to 0.560 in the latest UNDP report published on May 6. But beneath the milestone lies a sobering reality—Nigeria ranks 164th out of 193 countries, trailing Rwanda (0.578), Ghana (0.628), and Togo (0.571). According to the World Bank’s April report, 130 million Nigerians now live below the income poverty line. This is a stark reminder of the challenges ahead. Unless Nigeria mainstreams the SDGs, the dream of sustainable development will remain elusive.
Fed hits pause again; Nigeria may do the same.
The U.S. Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25–4.5% during its May meeting, citing heightened risks of both inflation and unemployment. Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against political pressure to cut rates, stressing that the Fed “can’t be preemptive.” This signals a cautious, data-dependent stance as Trump’s tariff shock ripples through the economy.
Nigeria’s central bank may mirror this approach. After ending a 12-month tightening cycle in February, the CBN is expected to hold again on May 20. Why? Inflation risk remains potent.
Oil prices are in a tailspin—down 19.7% year-to-date. After briefly dipping below $60pb, oil prices edged up to $63pb but could slide below $50 in the coming months. Portfolio flows are also drying up, down nearly 70% in just two months. The naira, already down 5% YTD to N1626/$, remains under pressure despite an 8.5% YTD drop in the US dollar.
Cutting rates now would be like opening the floodgates while still patching the dam. Our base case? Another hold.
Trump’s climate rollback jolts sustainability agenda
The markets have forced President Trump to pause his reciprocal tariffs, but he isn’t backing down from rolling back key federal climate initiatives. By suspending contributions to the Green Climate Fund and delaying clean energy subsidies, the global sustainability agenda now hangs in the balance.
Nigeria—already lagging on Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) benchmarks—faces tighter climate finance and a more uncertain path to adaptation. ESG investors are recalibrating, and the United Nations’ Agenda 2030 looks increasingly bleak for Nigeria.
In this edition of FDC Whispers, FDC Think Tank unpack these macro tremors—from oil markets to currency moves, and the policy choices that now hang in the balance.
