Dear Subscriber,
Leap years are strange. Some people believe that leap years are associated with unpleasant events. If you were born on February 29th, 1988, you have been able to celebrate only 8 birthdays whilst your peers have had 34 bashes. Like we said, it’s strange, different, surprising, and unpleasant. And this is what 2023 is expected to look like. An odd year in number but a leap year in characteristics.
2022 did a number on us all
No one expected the painful jabs from 2022. We were so ecstatic to be gradually recovering from the pandemic and its attendant lockdown that lasted for two years globally. Then came the Russia-Ukraine war which is still far from over. Not only did the war trigger the worst global inflation crisis (8.8% from 4.7% in 2021) in the last 40 years, it brought an abrupt end to quantitative easing. In a blink, the world sprinted from near zero rates to the highest interest rate levels not seen since the financial crisis of 2008. On average, global interest rates have risen by over 300 basis points across the major central banks, including Nigeria. To top it all, there is a 98% chance the world will slip into a recession. 2022 will definitely go down in history as a year to remember as we all try to forget. The great thing about 2022 is the coming of King Messi of football (the goat).
2023 will be a defining year for Nigeria – make it or break it.
First, a bird’s eye view suggests there will be a spillover of 2022’s demons into next year. That is high inflation, sluggish growth, currency weakness, falling consumer disposable income, interest rate hikes (albeit at a slower pace) and rising debts. But the defining factor is the ELECTIONS. Tensions are high, promises are loud and long but the candidate with the best chance of delivery is what Nigeria and Nigerians need. On our end, it is too early and dangerous to foretell the election outcomes at this time. However, ceteris paribus, we believe that Q1 will be for elections, Q2 for litigation, Q3 for celebration and Q4 for redemption. One thing is certain; whoever holds the baton for Nigeria in 2023 is inheriting a truck load of economic problems that only true and vibrant reforms will solve gradually.
In the latest edition of the LBS Breakfast Session, Bismarck Rewane and the FDC Think Tank take a leap into the future to provide a detailed outlook of the world economy, its connection to Nigeria and its impact on your businesses, households and investment decisions in 2023.
Enjoy your read…
