Halfway Economic Scorecard
“In Nigeria today, all politicians have become economists, and many economists’ opinions are for sale.”
Dear Subscriber,
After 730 days in office and 625 days to the next election, analysts are sharply divided as to the performance of the current administration. Depending on whom you ask, the answers will be as divergent as the sample size, ranging from excellent, satisfactory, average, to poor. Unfair critics will say “we are suffering and smiling” – Fela.
As a result of this bias, dispassionate and objective analysis has become increasingly difficult. It is against this backdrop that the FDC Think Tank has developed a three-dimensional model for evaluating the Nigerian economy: the orthodox (traditional), contemporary, and futuristic models.
Split between Orthodox, Contemporary, and Futuristic Evaluation
Based on the evaluation. here’s what each captures and reveals:
- Orthodox Model: The orthodox approach focuses purely on traditional macroeconomic metrics such as GDP growth, inflation, fiscal deficit, etc. When this model is applied, Nigeria scores an average of 51.5%, reflecting a satisfactory score. However, when social indicators, such as education and health, are taken into consideration, the score drops to 45.75%. This paints a picture of growth without tangible improvements in welfare, underscoring the challenges of economic progress without addressing foundational social issues. Exemplified by a cost-of-living crisis.
- Contemporary Model: It considers the traditional parameters and also factors in two key constituencies: corporate profitability and policy robustness. Under this model, Nigeria’s performance improves significantly, achieving a score of 66.05%. This suggests that the country is in the midst of a recovery phase, with policies increasingly reflecting forward-looking reforms. However, this progress is still fragile and requires a stronger focus on inclusive growth to create real value for all citizens.
- Futuristic Model: This model incorporates two earlier metrics but now ascribes a greater weight to Nigeria’s competitive position against its peers. when you apply this model, Nigeria’s score dropped sharply to 36.96%, reflecting the gap between its aspirations and its capacity to execute.
The key takeaway from this methodology is that, applying the traditional model, the economy is expected to muddle through and will not achieve its $1 trillion GDP goal except current policies are backed by institutional reform.
June–July 2025 Outlook – What Lies Ahead
Nigeria’s economy is expected to maintain a slow recovery in the coming months. Inflation is expected to ease to 23.15% in June, with Q1 2025 real GDP growth projected at 3.4%. The naira is likely to trade between ₦1,600–₦1,650/$, reflecting improved FX market stability. Brent crude remains volatile, expected at $60–$63/pb amid OPEC+ output adjustments.
Corporate profitability is set to rise in Q2 2025, supported by efficiency gains and lower inventory costs. The MPC is likely to cut the policy rate by 50bps to stimulate growth, while tax reforms will allocate VAT to consuming states, potentially boosting spending and business activity.
However, challenges persist, particularly in the energy sector, where power supply remains erratic, and in agriculture, where food inflation is expected to remain a concern despite the incoming harvest season.
Other notable developments include a shifting political landscape, with ongoing defections to the ruling party heightening uncertainty ahead of the 2027 elections. In aviation, Ethiopian Airlines is expanding operations in Lagos, enhancing connectivity with key destinations. Meanwhile, the creative sector remains underutilized, hindered by currency repatriation challenges despite its growing global reach.
In the latest LBS Breakfast Session, Bismarck Rewance and the FDC Think Tank analyse the current state of global uncertainty, Nigeria’s evolving economic approach, and what we anticipate in the near future.
Enjoy your read!
