Dear Subscriber,
The Slippery Slope of Globalisation
The first 100 days under the so-called “new world order” has been anything but stable. In this period, the World has been turned on its head. Investors are biting their nails, while speculators are having the time of their lives — all because of the new World disruption. Even Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, had to step down after a 65-year stint at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway. He is leaving behind a cash hoard of $347 bn at a time when they say cash is king.
Interestingly, we see a cocktail of investment opportunities for both the discerning and the shrewd. Many analysts, especially Goldman Sachs, are of the view that the probability of a recession in 2025 is at 40%. Whist J.P. Morgan Chase is even more bearish, placing the recession probability at 60%.
Nigeria – Bracing for a Challenging Q3
For Nigeria, the challenge is that macroeconomic stability is a function of oil prices. With the pessimistic projection of The Wall Street Journal that Brent could end 2025 below $50 per barrel, Nigerian policymakers have their work cut out for them.
At $50 pb and a production level of 1.5 mbpd, Nigeria’s oil revenue will be 10% below its fiscal breakeven point. The fiscal deficit could rise to 6–7% of GDP, with a knock-on effect on inflation. As we know, inflation is the mother of naira weakness and exchange rate depreciation; therefore, we should brace ourselves for bumpy months of June and July.
Is Dangote the White Knight?
The great news is that Dangote Africa’s richest man may be in a position to reduce the price of PMS again. This could help ameliorate the inflation quotient.
Money supply surged by 23.9% in March, and without tighter fiscal and monetary coordination, inflationary pressures may persist. Though GDP growth will rise to 3.72% in Q2, this is mainly base-effect driven, with notable momentum in real estate and telecoms (thanks to tariff hikes).
Corporate Earnings are Looking Good
We also expect the stock market to gain 2-3% because of improved corporate earnings and wider margins after two years of huge forex loses – Nigerian companies are breathing a sigh of relief again.
Still, investors and business owners remain cautiously optimistic, supported by naira stabilisation and improved corporate earnings. But Nigeria’s outlook is fragile—dependent on policy clarity, improved oil output, and a credible inflation-fighting strategy.
A hundred days may seem short, but they have shown how quickly global power can shift—and how vital it is for economies like Nigeria and regions like Africa to build resilience. Whether chaos or genius prevails will depend on how governments respond, how markets behave, and whether institutions can hold the line.
In the latest LBS Breakfast Session, Bismarck Rewane and the FDC Think Tank deeply dive into these economic issues, spotlighting the direct and indirect implications on your business and investment strategy.
Enjoy your read!
