Strong Data But Perplexed People

Dear Subscriber,

In 2021, the promise was for hope. Many were elated at the expectations of a better year with less travel restrictions, reduced Covid cases, a more proactive and accountable government and better living standards. Although this was not the case 100% with the ups, downs and bumps along the road, we admit that the roller-coaster ride of 2021 was better that the merry-go-round of 2020. While some are grateful with their arms wide open and hearts expectant for a better 2022, others are keeping their fingers crossed considering the bittersweet experiences 2021 had to offer.

For Nigeria, the official data of macroeconomic indicators (GDP, inflation, exchange rate, external reserves and oil prices) point to a strong 2022. However, the average Nigerian is still perplexed. The price of domestic commodities are high and will climb further once fuel subsidy is removed and cost reflective electricity tariffs are implemented. Meanwhile, income levels are the same.

H1’22 will be characterized by aggressive reforms and the incumbent government embarking on ambitious infrastructure projects to garner the trust of the public as the elections approach. H2’22 will be all about politics. Political campaigns will commence and this time around the dynamics might change due to the e-voting system. But the impact is likely to be the same. Money supply could increase further stoking inflationary pressures, reforms will slowdown and political tensions could rise.

At the moment, many are sunk in bigger HOPE for a better year. The best case scenario would be less covid cases, no new variants, higher oil price and production levels and a seamless transition into the election year.

In the video and download link, Bismarck Rewane provides a rundown on 2021 and an economic outlook for 2022.