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Herd Immunity or is Africa Just Lucky??
SSA was initially believed to be insulated from the wrath of the covid pandemic. Some myths that include high temperature and young demography have since been debunked as infection cases spiked. What is becoming more apparent is Africa’s low fatality as a percentage of the infected population, a phenomenon that needs further interrogation by epidemiologists. This is being attributed to some form of herd immunity as a result of previous epidemics like HIV, Tuberculosis and other tropical diseases.
Some analysts have drawn a correlation between poverty and immunity. However, the fact that India, a country with very high poverty levels, now has the second highest global cases contradicts this view. Africa is now on the radar as covid-19 cases cross the 1million threshold (1.30mn). Infection cases in South Africa are 49.1% (638,517) of the total cases in Africa making it the country with the highest cases in the continent but fatality is low.
Recovery in Africa – The Bright & Dim Spots!
Economic recovery in Africa will be uneven. The continent could have a V-shaped recovery while countries like Nigeria, South Africa and Angola are likely to have a U-shaped recovery in 2021. SSA will be coming out of a region-wide recession while East Africa would remain in growth especially the largest economy – Ethiopia. SSA is likely to contract by 4.1% in 2020 before a gradual rebound to 2.2% in 2021.
Debt Solution or Debt Trap??
SSA countries are pushing a strong case for debt relief and forbearance whilst accumulating more debt. External debt stock in SSA is projected to rise by 6% to $631bn in 2020. In the short-term, debt servicing will be easy as interest rates are at an historical low level. However, this could easily become a debt trap as global economies recover and interest rates reverse themselves. African leaders are best advised to be cautious on piling up their external debts which could come back to bite them.
This edition of the FDC Afriscope is fully packed with interesting economic pieces on many issues currently affecting the continent.
Do enjoy your read!
